Narendra Modi is quite a divisive figure in his homeland. But the reason behind his decision to embark on a tour of the Indian Ocean couldn’t be clearer.

By NR

Next month should see the Prime minister of India, Narendra Modi, complete a whirlwind visit of Seychelles. According to our sources, Mr Modi will be arriving on the evening of March 10 before jetting off to Mauritius the next day. Even if the Indian High Commission has refused to confirm the news, the Indian press has for some time now been presenting the visit, which is part of a whistle-stop regional tour, as a given. Indeed, in its edition of February 17, the usually reliable Times of India described this initiative as “New Delhi's most concerted Indian Ocean outreach”. Interestingly, the Indian Prime minister’s interest in the Indian Ocean is being evoked as a gambit to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

Despite its geopolitical nature, Mr Modi’s visit should provide a boost to trade links between the two countries which remain underwhelming. In 2012, Seychelles imported USD44.7 million (around SCR619 million) worth of goods from India, sending only USD6.6 million (SCR91.3 million) worth of products in the opposite direction. In 2013, the net level of trade totalled USD53.7 million (around SCR743.2 million). Seychelles’ imports from the Indian subcontinent include foodstuffs, textiles, machinery and vehicles. Two well known Indian companies that have long been implanted in Seychelles are Airtel and the Bank of Baroda which set up shop here in 1998 and 1978, respectively. 
In December last year, Air Seychelles introduced thrice weekly flights to Mumbai (21 000 annual seats). At the time of the launch, the then minister of Home Affairs and Transport, Joel Morgan, described the move as a way to “strengthen these existing bilateral ties while stimulating the level of economic and commercial activity between Seychelles and India”.

The relationship between Victoria and New Delhi transcends commercial interests however, due largely to the fact that Seychellois of Indian origin comprise around 7% of the population. Indeed, according to historical accounts, five “south Indians” were part of the first group of 28 settlers sent here to establish spice plantations in 1770.

Moreover, as of January 1, 2013, 8 621 Indian nationals were living in Seychelles, or more than half of the 16 197 non Seychellois residing in the archipelago. Whereas Seychelles only set up an embassy in New Delhi as recently as 2008, India has had a resident High Commissioner here since 1987. According to the Indian ministry of External Affairs, “Indo-Seychelles relations have been characterised by close friendship, understanding and cooperation”. This is illustrated by the growing popularity of Seychelles-India Day, the first edition of which was commemorated in October 2013.

Neither will Mr Modi be the first Indian dignitary to touch down at Seychelles International Airport. In 2012, the then President of India, Pratibha Patil, also visited Mahé, along with a delegation of several dozen businessmen. This trip however has a distinctly geopolitical taste to it though. The Times of India presented the stakes thus: “A successful Indian Ocean tour with a focus on increasing security and military cooperation with the smaller island neighbours will help Modi negotiate with the Chinese from a position of strength”, whereas the Indian Express warned that, “as a rising China reshapes the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean, India’s natural geographic and strategic primacy is no longer assured. As the world’s second largest economy, and soon to be the first, China’s interests in the Indian Ocean are growing”.

The complexion of the Indian Ocean is indeed changing. Whether Mr Modi’s visit to the region will suffice to reassert India’s influence in the face of China’s “chequebook diplomacy” remains to seen. One thing that is for certain is that this chapter of history is only just beginning to be written.

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